Playing Survivor is an anxiety generating proposition. Every action you make, every person you talk to is noticed and scrutinized. Being on your game at all times is essential. The ability to trust someone else is necessary, but must be evaluated constantly.

With so much uncertainty in Survivor, determining who you can rely on and who you can trust is a very difficult situation. However, sometimes the players help you out. Not by making it obvious you can trust them, but making it obvious that you can’t trust them. This exact scenario led to Tarzan’s demise this week.

Tarzan’s strategy playing Survivor has certainly been unique if not downright confusing. He informed the viewers this week that he set up his game in stages and has continuously accomplished those stages. Okay, not bad. When talking to the women, he continuously downplays himself, focusing on anyone else.  Also a sound strategy: taking the attention off of him.

Where Tarzan has failed is very similar to how Troyzan failed. Each were likely correct in their assessment of the situation to the women that surrounded them. However, neither could present their side without going too far and appearing crazy. Subsequently they’re both now on the jury.

Any traction Tarzan gained with Alicia and Christina while the other three were at the reward took a huge hit when blabber mouth Alicia shared what he said with Kim. Wisely, Kim played along and said that Tarzan told her all the same things. Kim played Alicia like a fiddle, creating significant paranoia in her over Tarzan’s intentions.

The irony of Kim’s strategy is that Tarzan’s intentions were reasonably pure. All he wanted to do was avoid elimination and was doing anything he could to try and put the target on someone else. He was never gunning for Kim or Alicia specifically, but doing and saying anything he could to get the women thinking more about each other than him.

Where Tarzan failed, even after Kim and Alicia spoke was all of his crazy antics regarding virtually irrelevant things. He insisted that the coconut stew he was making for breakfast be strained in his buff, for basically no reason. Later, he wore Kat’s clothing, just to be weird.

This likely seemed very innocent enough to Tarzan. In actually it answered any sort of debating Alicia might have been having over whether to vote for Chelsea or Tarzan. When Alicia is trying to decide who she can trust, Kim may be tough to read, but Tarzan is easy: he’s too unstable to trust.

Tarzan’s departure leaves five women to vie for the title of sole survivor. What are their odds? Glad you asked. I’ll break it down.

Kim: Even
Even if, technically, everyone has a one in five shot of winning Survivor, Kim is the heavy favorite. For starters, she’s already in to the final four with her immunity idol.  More impressive – she doesn’t need it. Astoundingly no one is talking about Kim as a threat to win the game at all.  Every week a new name pops up and it is never her. Despite Alicia’s delusions, she’s been the one running the show for a while now and deserves the win far more than anyone else. Even odds may not be low enough.

Alicia: 3-1
As much as it pains me to put Alicia here, there’s no one else as deserving to be next in line behind Kim. Alicia has not done much to stir the pot of the game, but at least she’s debating the idea. The other three have basically just been along for the ride. If she pulls a move tilt the numbers in her favor, she can make a case for her victory. However, she’ll still struggle to convince a jury that she’s more deserving than Kim. Also, as Kim’s stated, she’s not well liked.  By anyone; jury or otherwise.

Chelsea: 3-1
Kim’s sidekick is basically the exact opposite of Alicia. She’s done almost nothing except listen to Kim the entire game. However, she’s really well liked. When Troyzan blows up at the final tribal council (if you were not convinced that it is coming, you should be after the face he made at tribal council this week) she can sit there and honestly say she did not want to get rid of Jay or Troyzan. The jury shouldn’t reward her for this, but they have in the past.  If Kim ever did not make the finals, she has as good a chance of anyone at winning.

Sabrina: 5-1
A blend of Chelsea’s game and Alicia’s game, Sabrina started out the game appearing to be a force to be reckoned with and has faded since. Maybe the conditions sapped her energy or perhaps she realized her place alongside Kim would get her farther than anything she could do, but she’s wilted over the past six weeks or so. Once in a while she says something in a confessional that gets you thinking she could make a move and then never does anything.

Christina: 20-1
Whereas Kim’s odds likely can’t be low enough, Christina’s can’t be high enough. Her odds are four times worse than her statistical situation and that might not be high enough. Christina winning Survivor would be the biggest upset in the history of the game. She has done nothing in the game physically, strategically or around camp. She has no obvious friends who would vote for her. How could she ever win? Well, because of this she’s almost sure to get to the final three. Maybe Kim has to leave for some medical reason and people just can’t stand voting for Alicia?

This season of Survivor has been Kim’s to lose since she orchestrated getting rid of Jay. Hard to imagine she does not finish what she started on Sunday.

More from this episode:

• I can’t get over how pathetic the survivors not named Kim are this season. Chelsea has a very reasonable, not all that inflammatory conversation with Christina and she runs straight to Kim to tell her. Why?!?! What does that get you? Same with Alicia. She doesn’t even take Tarzan’s sound advice to see how Kim reacts to voting Chelsea off and instead tells her what he said. Why not at least wait to see what Kim actually says?
• Speaking of Christina, I was glad to hear Chelsea defend herself and clarify why she didn’t take Christina on the reward. I only wish she had done so while she was not picking Christina.  
• Why was Kat crying upon hearing that Tarzan was wearing her tank top (also, how on earth did he fit in that?) and putting her panties on his head.  Sure, it is super weird, but I’d expect either a confused face or a sarcastic laugh. Not tears. Kat’s birth certificate may say she’s 22, but she acts like she’s 15.