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Even if the writers keep insisting Dan & Blair shared more than just a kiss experience it would be ridiculous for them to have it unprotected. Dan has already enjoyed the happiness of being a "father" and I don't think he is desperately willing to repeat it. Besides, they are both pretty pragmatic when they are together, especially Blair, no way I'd believe it's Dan's baby. For this to happen there must have been a significant character change from both sides before the event, which I didn't see. Though I guess what it’s all about: Dan might have written something different in his book - well, we know how those writers make real what’s not real - thus giving a possibility to Blair to hide who the real father is. Blair spending time with Louis in bed all summer doesn't mean they broke the big royal rule "No babies before the wedding". Louis would never have done that up to the present moment, as we have just seen him scared to confront his mother about such a small thing as flowers. If he had had a finger in the pie he wouldn't be concerned about flowers anymore... He would want the wedding to happen long before November. Seeing Louis so relaxed makes me think Blair had spent the summer in bed just because she felt sick, which is quite usual for the first weeks of pregnancy. So unless Blair went into denial having one night stand with some random guy – why should she, here’s her fairytale – there's the only one person who could be the father. As for the timing: According to what Blair said to Louis “we are going to be married in 3 months…� and knowing that the wedding is on November 26th (the date on Serena’s invitation), then the events of this episode must happen at the end of July. So I’ll bet on: Louis finds out about Blair being pregnant and understands right away it is someone else’s baby. Poor Louis, I assume he will want to keep Blair, but Blair will probably want to keep the baby. Good thing, this will be the moment for Blair to finally give up her false fairytale. Bad thing, she wouldn’t want Chuck to be in her and baby’s life either. Well how to keep Chuck away from thinking it might be his child? Well, Blair still has friends or at least, she could blackmail them into being those. Because after having messed up with Blair either due to not telling her what Louis was up to that day or due to the book being published later, Knight Dan has no choice but to cover up for her if he still wants to be friends. Good thing, this leaves open the possibility of Chuck to mature enough until the moment he finds out the real truth. Bad thing, it is going to be a real torture for Dan because… he might end up being friends with Chuck, too. Uhuh, I’d love to see that. It’s not like I want to see Dan suffer, but I think it is a necessary step in Dan’s evolution of being an insider. But that’s another story :)

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