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im kinda thinking Lily. i know she was on house arrest so it makes no sense why the test was in Blairs trashcan but stranger things have happened on Gossip Girl lol... my next guess is Ivy. I dont think they can have Blair or Serena as a Mom it would ruin too much!
more clues it could be Lily - wasnt there a spoiler for a real cute Rufly storyline coming up? and I saw it mentioned Lily isnt in episode 1 bc she is redecorating - a nursery perhapss??? .. 3rd there have been no set pics of Lily yet that i have seen so maybe their hiding her baby bump