After last night’s temper tantrum, I hope that anyone who was a Jane supporter is hiding in the shadows this morning, afraid to admit that they backed a woman who is 56 going on 5. 

I haven’t been a Jane supporter since her ridiculous spat with Marty.  Absurdly, she took his attempts to vote her out of the game as a personal attack.  She refused to recognize his logic that she was a threat to win challenges and the game.  Instead she responded in a manner only a fraction better than how NaOnka handles adversity.  Unfortunately, she ultimately won out over Marty because was more of a threat to Brenda and Sash than Jane.

Since Marty’s ouster, Jane has calmed down a bit, made close friends with Chase and Holly and cried over a dead chicken.  Then, Jud wins immunity and suddenly her head is on the chopping block again.  The only difference this time is that the people looking to vote her out do not have any other target that makes sense.  She’s the biggest threat in the game and everyone knows it.

How Jane handled this news was childish and pathetic.  Her childish actions afterwards (giving Sash the finger, dousing the fire) need little explanation.  She’s a grown mother who you would think she’s been through far worse situations (at least from the way she’s presented to us) and could handle things like an adult.  Apparently, that’s not the case.

What’s potentially even more disappointing is that she essentially did nothing about it.  Jeff had to practically beg Jane to suggest working with Jud and Dan to go at the controlling alliance of Chase, Sash and Holly.  For some reason it never occurred to Jane to talk with Jud and/or Dan at all. 

There are two things I’m inferring from her actions, or lack thereof.  First, because of all the talk about what a hard life Jane has lived and how the jury would feel she deserves the one million dollar prize, Jane felt that her tribe mates should give her the opportunity to win.  She did not respond to the news that she was heading home by trying to play the game and figure out a way to survive.  She stomped off like a four-year old.

Second, perhaps Jud and Dan wouldn’t have voted with her anyway.  Admittedly it is likely hard to organize an alliance and a voting shift on the fly at tribal council, but Jeff basically laid it out there for Jane, Jud and Dan and they still didn’t do it.  Why wouldn’t Dan or Jud throw their vote at Holly and hope the other and Jane vote with them?  They’re on the outside anyway, what’s the harm?

In my opinion, Dan and Jud recognize that they have a better shot at winning as the smaller fish being hunted by the bigger fish than the smaller fish clinging to the sides of the shark.  Let’s say the plan works and Holly loses a tiebreaker and Jane stays.   Then what?  Dan and Jud still can’t risk bringing Jane to the final tribal council because they’d lose. 

They have a better chance of hoping the alliance of three cracks at the next tribal.  If Jud wins immunity again, what benefit does Holly, Sash or Chase have of eliminating Dan?  He’s not a threat to win the final immunity and he’s not a threat to win the game.  He’s the absolute perfect person to keep the entire time.  That’s why they went after Jane instead of Dan in the first place. 

Even if Jud doesn’t win immunity, it is to Dan’s benefit to keep Jud around.  Knowing that the trio would want Dan to stay around, the pair could team up and offer two votes to whomever votes with them.  Chase, Holly or Sash could write their own ticket to a final tribal council victory. 

Speaking of final tribal council, who will win?  Let’s break down the remaining five players and their odds of winning:

Jud “Fabio” Birza
Odds: 8-1

Despite what I just proposed about Dan and Jud teaming up together to sell their votes to the highest bidder, I still think Jud has two win two immunity challenges to get in to the final.  Dan hasn’t exactly been the biggest player in the game, so he might not make the effort to force the issue by pairing with Jud.  Nor is Jud the sharpest knife in the drawer to come up with such a plan anyway.

Chase Rice
Odds: 6-1

Even though he’s in the dominant alliance right now, he’s made so many enemies along the way that it will be hard for him to get enough votes.  He may make it to the final three fairly easily, but who’s voting for him besides NaOnka?  No way will Jane vote for him.  If Jud’s on the jury, his vote is out too.  Same for Dan.  Brenda or Marty?   Unlikely.  Only Alina and Kelly S seem like possible votes to go with NaOnka.

Dan Lembo
Odds: 5-1

Dan gets slightly better odds than Chase simply because he’s a shoo-in for the final three.  In fact, voting Jane out last night should be a wake-up call to Sash, Chase and Holly.  All three of them are looking out for number one and there’s no way all three of them are making it to the final three.  They did as much by eliminating their friend and alliance member Jane in favor of keeping Dan and will do so again when it comes time to narrow to three.

Holly Hoffman and Matthew “Sash” Lenahan
Odds: 3-2

It’s a case of the emotional favorite, Holly, against the strategic player, Sash.  Holly has made more friends along the way, but Sash has done more to get himself further in the game.  If either is eliminated (my bet is that one will gun for the other before the next tribal) whomever remains reduces to a 3-2 favorite to win it all.  If they go up against each other it should be a very interesting vote.

More from this week’s episode:

• I’ve said this before and I’m going to keep saying it.  I want to go on Survivor to understand what happens to these people, emotionally, that turns them in to blubbering messes when they see their loved ones.  Because I don’t get it.  Jud had his own mini temper tantrum when Chase didn’t pick him.  Dan almost melted at seeing his son who proceeded to sexually assault him.  The one person I expected to really lose it was Jane, who turned in to a college girl partying at a fraternity when she saw her daughter.
• The remaining survivors were legitimately shocked that their loved ones were in Nicaragua and would be joining them for the challenge.  It’s been, what 15 straight seasons this has happened?  Who’s surprised anymore?
• Great exchange between Chase and Jeff that I’m surprised was left in: Chase: What happens to the rest of them? Jeff: They will be taken and executed.
• If you needed any more proof that Jane sucked, she voted for Sash and not Holly.  I’m curious if she even understands the game at all, or just votes for whomever she hates every week.  What a spiteful woman.

Who will win Survivor: Nicaragua?